Seven players the Bills can least afford to lose in 2024 (2024)

The Bills made many changes through the offseason to clear cap space for future seasons and refresh what had become an older roster. The Bills had a limited amount of roster turnover over several offseasons, so at least in that regard, the 2024 season will be different.

One primary consequence of cleaning up future cap years is roster depth getting worse. That’s just a fact of life in the NFL, as your core players take up more significant percentages of a team’s overall cap space.

It also places additional pressure on some of the top players on the Bills roster to stay healthy and perform at their highest capabilities.

Based on what we’ve seen since the Bills reconvened for training camp, their overall importance to the team’s success, and the depth chart behind them, here are the seven players the Bills can least afford to lose in 2024.

1) QB Josh Allen

Well, duh. The Bills have been extremely fortunate to have had their franchise quarterback play in every game over the past five seasons. There have been close calls over the years, but even with his, at times, brazen play style that incurs some unnecessary hits, Allen hasn’t missed a start since Week 10 of the 2018 campaign. It’s very simple. The Bills go as Allen goes. If they are to have any chance at getting past the Chiefs, and the rest of the AFC in 2024, Allen has to be the primary reason.

And, if it’s possible, Allen’s health might even be more critical this year than it ever was before. Since 2020, they’ve had the safety blanket of a star wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, who, as a bankable contributor most weeks, would take pressure off of Allen. The Bills also usually had proven wideouts in addition to Diggs. Now, all of that is gone. Allen will need to become a talent elevator with a receiver group that has nothing but questions. How will Keon Coleman adapt in his first year? Can Khalil Shakir prove to be a more potent contributor than he was last season? Is Curtis Samuel anything more than an 800-yard-or-less receiver? The answer to all of those questions, to some degree, involves Allen. Can he support a receiver room that lacks an identifiable number-one receiver and make it go, or will the Bills learn this year that a top receiver is a necessity moving forward?

Regardless of that answer, Allen is the player the Bills can least afford to lose. No one else on the roster is within shouting distance. If Allen gets injured, the playoff odds with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm will reduce dramatically. It’s the reason why the running reduction and sliding at the end of runs questions have persisted since Allen turned the corner into one of the league’s elite quarterbacks.

2) NCB Taron Johnson

It might be surprising to see Johnson listed this high. However, with so many prominent players having left Buffalo over the past two offseasons, he is on the shortlist for the second-best player on the Bills after Allen. Johnson is in the prime of his career and does every aspect of his job well. He is a nuisance in zone coverage and can read plays well. His man-cover skills have improved dramatically from when he first entered the league. He is a sure-handed tackler who can go toe-to-toe with ball carriers that easily outweigh him. On top of it all, he provides the Bills the chance to stay in nickel all game because of how he defends the run as a de facto third linebacker. They like Cam Lewis, but no one else on the team can do what Johnson does to elevate the defense and make them as versatile as they’ve been the last few years.

3) LT Dion Dawkins

Dawkins went from one of the first draft picks of the Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane era to now being the offensive line elder statesman. The 30-year-old inked a new contract extension this offseason as the Bills’ trusted blindside protector, the role he’s had since his rookie season in 2017. Dawkins is coming off one of his best seasons in 2023, which makes him a critical piece to the puzzle. Plus, with the shuffling of the offensive line in the two spots next to him, Dawkins provides a sense of calm. But the biggest reason he lands so high on this list is because the drop-off from him to the top backup would be steep. The Bills will likely head into the season with former undrafted player Ryan Van Demark as Dawkins’ primary backup for a second straight season. Van Demark has never made a start and has only 47 total regular-season snaps to his name, most of which happened in garbage time.

4) DT Ed Oliver

Oliver makes this list because he was one of the three best players on the team in 2023 and doesn’t have any questions surrounding him heading into the year. When Oliver is on his game, as he was all last season, he instantly makes the defense and team better. His all-around skill set as both a pass rusher and run defender, even working well against double teams, makes him difficult to take off the field in any situation. The depth around Oliver is improved from where it was a year ago, as the Bills invested a third-round pick this year in DeWayne Carter, and veteran Austin Johnson has appeared to be an improvement over Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle and Poona Ford to this point. But no one is close to having the versatile skill set that Oliver provides, and he’s still only 26 years old.

5) LB Matt Milano

If Milano had to miss any time this year, the Bills would have yet another uncertain position to overcome on a defense with several questions, as Milano’s top two fill-ins at the moment would be second-year player Dorian Williams, a 2023 third-round pick, and rookie Edufuan Ulofoshio, a fifth-round pick this April. Williams has a lot of speed in his game and can make some flash plays, but he remains rough around the edges against play action and can get caught out of position. Milano has top-notch instincts and recognition skills, limiting plays many players at his position would not see quickly enough. In most years, Milano would likely be higher up this list, given the youth on the depth chart behind him at outside linebacker, but Milano is dealing with questions of his own. The 30-year-old is coming off a long-term leg injury that ended his 2023 season in Week 5 and isn’t all the way back from a speed perspective just yet. If he returns to his pre-injury form, he’d push Johnson for the second spot.

6) DE Greg Rousseau

Now in his fourth season, the Bills are depending on Rousseau to take the next step in 2024, and he has been outstanding throughout practices this summer. The entire defensive end room is built around him, as Rousseau will likely lead the group in snap counts by a healthy margin, barring injury. Rousseau can play either the left or right side, and at this stage of his career, he is the best pure pass rusher they have. Even with him in the lineup, the pressure off the edge could be a bit tougher to come by this season than in past years. If Rousseau has to miss time, pressure off the edge could become a major weakness of this Bills defense. But the table is also set for Rousseau to become one of the best players on the team in 2024.

7) C Connor McGovern

The Bills liked what they saw out of McGovern at left guard in 2023, his first year with the team, but it wasn’t enough to have him be the slam-dunk pick at center after the team moved on from veteran Mitch Morse. Regardless, McGovern makes the end of this list because the backup offensive line concerns are very real for the Bills this season — especially at center. The two starting guards, O’Cyrus Torrence and David Edwards, are guards only. Their top interior backup, who will likely be La’El Collins, is also a guard only. That will likely leave former undrafted player Alec Anderson, fifth-round rookie Sedrick Van Pran-Granger or up-and-down veteran Will Clapp to be the starting center if McGovern misses time. Clapp is on the bubble, while Anderson and Van Pran-Granger are both likely to make the team. Anderson and Van Pran-Granger collectively don’t have a regular-season snap between them, making McGovern’s health a big piece of the 2024 season.

What about…

TE Dalton Kincaid — The Bills have Dawson Knox, who spent a lot of time operating as the team’s top tight end during some of their best years. They know he can do the job. So, while Kincaid is clearly the more talented pass-catcher, they could get by and still remain successful with Knox.

LB Terrel Bernard — Between Milano and Bernard, when Milano is at his best, he is the linebacker they can least afford to lose. With Bernard, his season last year provided a lot of flash plays, though the substance plays defending the run and in coverage showed a player who was probably closer to an average performer than one of the team’s best. He could certainly take a step forward in 2024, but from what we saw last season, the drop-off to Baylon Spector or a veteran linebacker shouldn’t be as steep as Milano to the second-year player Williams.

RB James Cook — The nature of the running back position as a whole likely dictates that the Bills should be able to get solid production from one of Ty Johnson or rookie Ray Davis should Cook need to miss any time. They’d probably lose an explosive element of their offense, but the trio of Johnson, Davis and even receiver Curtis Samuel could help offensive coordinator Joe Brady devise a solid weekly plan.

(Top photo: Shawn Dowd / USA Today)

Joe Buscaglia is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Buffalo Bills. Joe has covered the team since 2010. He spent his first five years on the beat at WGR Sports Radio 550 and the next four years at WKBW-TV in Buffalo. A native of Hamburg, N.Y., Buscaglia is a graduate of Buffalo State College. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeBuscaglia